Driven almost entirely by sales of Macs and iPads, the PC market is the only segment of the computer hardware market that will grow in 2012, according to Forrester's recently published global tech spending forecast.
According to the report, the PC market will grow by two per cent. Forrester estimates that Apple will sell $7 billion of Macs and $10 billion of iPads to the corporate market in 2012. In contrast, global corporate spending on Wintel PCs and tablets will be down by three per cent in 2012 and flat in 2013 as Windows 8 incentive for firms to replace old Wintel PCs mostly keeps that market level. In 2013, the PC market will grow by six per cent, with Mac and iPad sales totaling $23 billion.
Overall, global tech purchases will total $2,001 billion in 2012, an increase of 1.3 per cent over 2011. This is down from our January forecast of of 5.4 percent. By 2013, Forrester expects Europe's mild recession to end, growth in the US and the rest of the world will improve, and the US dollar to hold most of its 2012 gains against other currencies. As a result, tech market growth measured in US dollars will accelerate to 4.3 per cent in 2013. This figure is also down from January, when we projected 8 per cent growth. In Western and Central Europe alone, business and government purchases of IT goods and services are projected to reach US$464 billion in 2012 and US$482 billion in 2013. This is down 7.7 per cent and up 3.9 per cent from the previous year, respectively.
Also of note in the report:
- The software market will grow a little faster than the overall tech market in 2012 and will be the fastest growing market in 2013. The SaaS software market will equal $49 billion in 2012 and grow by 25 percent.
- Cloud computing software as a percentage of the commercial software market has grown two percent each of the last three years. In 2012, Forrester estimates it will comprise 14 per cent of the commercial software market.
- Tech spending in Western and Central Europe will decline by 7.7 per cent in US dollars (2.5 per cent in local currencies).
- Countries that have been a major focus of vendor sales efforts - BRIC and Turkey, South Africa and Mexico - are experiencing slower economic growth. After experiencing double-digit increases in 2010 and 2011, Forrester project 4.8 per cent growth in 2012 and 4.9% in 2013.